1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
|
<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<title>COVID-19 UK</title>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="output.css">
</head>
<body class="container mx-auto py-10">
<div>
<h1 class="text-center">COVID-19 in the UK</h1>
<p>
Up until recently, I used a couple of resources (i.e.
<a href="https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/china/article/3047038/wuhan-virus/index.html">one</a>,
<a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/">two</a>) for tracking
an updated number of confirmed covid-19 cases.
</p>
<p>
Given the high speed at which the virus is spreading, I was having a
difficult time intuiting the shape of this growth. For example if today
the total number of confirmed cases for covid-19 in the UK was 500, I
could not remember if yesterday it was 450, 400, or 200.
</p>
<p>
Thankfully someone is <a
href="https://github.com/pomber/covid19">publishing this data</a> as a
timeseries database. I am currently living in London, so I decided to
chart the <u>daily number of confirmed covid-19 cases in the UK</u> to
better understand what is happening.
</p>
</div>
<canvas id="myChart" class="py-12"></canvas>
<script src="./node_modules/chart.js/dist/Chart.bundle.min.js"></script>
<script>
var timeseries =
fetch('https://pomber.github.io/covid19/timeseries.json')
.then(res => res.json())
.then(createChart);
function createChart(data) {
var uk = data["United Kingdom"];
var data = uk.map(x => x["confirmed"]);
var labels = uk.map(x => x["date"]);
var ctx = document.getElementById('myChart').getContext('2d');
var myChart = new Chart(ctx, {
type: 'line',
data: {
labels: labels,
datasets: [{
label: 'Number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.K.',
data: data,
backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 0, 100, 0.2)',
borderWidth: 3
}]
},
options: {
scales: {
yAxes: [{
ticks: {
beginAtZero: true
}
}]
}
}
});
}
</script>
<div>
<h2 class="text-center">Back of the envelope predictions</h2>
<p>
From what I have read, a population where 60% of its constituents have
been infected with covid-19 and have recovered is said to have "herd
immunity". Once a population has herd immunity, the rate at which the
virus spreads decreases.
</p>
<p>
Roughly 60M people live in the UK; 60% of 60M is around 40M. Before a
population reaches "herd immunity", the total number of <em>true
covid-19 cases</em> <u>doubles every five days</u>. Therefore in <u>fifty
days</u> you might expect the number of true cases to be <u>1000x
larger</u> than what it is today.
</p>
<p>
So if you think the total number of <em>true covid-19 cases</em>
<u>today</u> is 40,000 then you might expect the rate of growth to slow
down in a little less than two months.
</p>
<p>
Thank you for reading.
</p>
</div>
<footer class="pt-5 mb-8 lg:flex">
<a class="block py-2 lg:w-1/4 text-center hover:underline" href="https://learn.wpcarro.dev">Learn</a>
<a class="block py-2 lg:w-1/4 text-center hover:underline" href="https://blog.wpcarro.dev">Blog</a>
<a class="block py-2 lg:w-1/4 text-center hover:underline" href="https://twitter.com/wpcarro">Twitter</a>
<a class="block py-2 lg:w-1/4 text-center hover:underline" href="https://github.com/wpcarro">Github</a>
</footer>
</body>
</html>
|
