users/wpcarro/website/sandbox/covid-uk/index.html - depot

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<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="UTF-8">
  <title>COVID-19 UK</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet"  href="output.css">
</head>
<body class="container mx-auto py-10">
  <div>
    <h1 class="text-center">COVID-19 in the UK</h1>
    <p>
      Up until recently, I used a couple of resources (i.e.
      <a href="https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/china/article/3047038/wuhan-virus/index.html">one</a>, 
      <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/">two</a>) for tracking
      an updated number of confirmed covid-19 cases.
    </p>
    <p>
      Given the high speed at which the virus is spreading, I was having a
      difficult time intuiting the shape of this growth. For example if today
      the total number of confirmed cases for covid-19 in the UK was 500, I
      could not remember if yesterday it was 450, 400, or 200.
    </p>
    <p>
      Thankfully someone is <a
      href="https://github.com/pomber/covid19">publishing this data</a> as a
      timeseries database. I am currently living in London, so I decided to
      chart the <u>daily number of confirmed covid-19 cases in the UK</u> to
      better understand what is happening.
    </p>
  </div>
  <canvas id="myChart" class="py-12"></canvas>
  <script src="./node_modules/chart.js/dist/Chart.bundle.min.js"></script>
  <script>
   var timeseries =
     fetch('https://pomber.github.io/covid19/timeseries.json')
       .then(res => res.json())
       .then(createChart);

   function createChart(data) {
     var uk = data["United Kingdom"];
     var data = uk.map(x => x["confirmed"]);
     var labels = uk.map(x => x["date"]);

     var ctx = document.getElementById('myChart').getContext('2d');
     var myChart = new Chart(ctx, {
       type: 'line',
       data: {
         labels: labels,
         datasets: [{
           label: 'Number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.K.',
           data: data,
           backgroundColor: 'rgba(255, 0, 100, 0.2)',
           borderWidth: 3
         }]
       },
       options: {
         scales: {
           yAxes: [{
             ticks: {
               beginAtZero: true
             }
           }]
         }
       }
     });
   }
  </script>
  <div>
    <h2 class="text-center">Back of the envelope predictions</h2>
    <p>
      From what I have read, a population where 60% of its constituents have
      been infected with covid-19 and have recovered is said to have "herd
      immunity". Once a population has herd immunity, the rate at which the
      virus spreads decreases.
    </p>
    <p>
      Roughly 60M people live in the UK; 60% of 60M is around 40M. Before a
      population reaches "herd immunity", the total number of <em>true
      covid-19 cases</em> <u>doubles every five days</u>. Therefore in <u>fifty
      days</u> you might expect the number of true cases to be <u>1000x
      larger</u> than what it is today.
    </p>
    <p>
      So if you think the total number of <em>true covid-19 cases</em>
      <u>today</u> is 40,000 then you might expect the rate of growth to slow
      down in a little less than two months.
    </p>
    <p>
      Thank you for reading.
    </p>
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