COVID-19 in the UK

+ Up until recently, I used a couple of resources (i.e. + one, + two) for tracking + an updated number of confirmed covid-19 cases. +

+ Given the high speed at which the virus is spreading, I was having a + difficult time intuiting the shape of this growth. For example if today + the total number of confirmed cases for covid-19 in the UK was 500, I + could not remember if yesterday it was 450, 400, or 200. +

+ Thankfully someone is publishing this data as a + timeseries database. I am currently living in London, so I decided to + chart the daily number of confirmed covid-19 cases in the UK to + better understand what is happening. +

Back of the envelope predictions

+ From what I have read, a population where 60% of its constituents have + been infected with covid-19 and have recovered is said to have "herd + immunity". Once a population has herd immunity, the rate at which the + virus spreads decreases. +

+ Roughly 60M people live in the UK; 60% of 60M is around 40M. Before a + population reaches "herd immunity", the total number of true + covid-19 cases doubles every five days. Therefore in fifty + days you might expect the number of true cases to be 1000x + larger than what it is today. +

+ So if you think the total number of true covid-19 cases + today is 40,000 then you might expect the rate of growth to slow + down in a little less than two months. +

+ Thank you for reading. +